link to Prof. Stein's home page
link to ISS 325 War and Revolution syllabus                                                    stein@msu.edu
ISS 325 section 6
WAR AND REVOLUTION
 ISS325--WAR & REVOLUTION lecture Introduction pages
    spring 2003


TABLE OF CONTENTS

*Introduction: Relationships and Processes                             2-13
States/Weak States/Sovereignty/Blood                                  14-47
Just War/War Crimes/Genocide                                          48-91
Human Aggression                                                            92-125
Conquest/Authority                                                          126-148
Ethnic Conflict/Nationalism                                               149-180
Revolution/Internal Conflict                                               181-225
War/Threat/Aggression                                                      226-242
U.N./Peacekeeping/Humanitarian Intervention                     243-255
Nuclear Weapons/Weapons of Mass Destruction                 256-265
Syllabus and Course Information                                        266-269
Old Tests 2000/1, 2000/3                                                  270-278



Spring 2003ISS 325 section 6
WAR AND REVOLUTION
WARNING: using the course pack as a substitute for class attendance will be hazardous to your grade.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Introduction: Relationships and Processes 2- 12

States/Weak States/Sovereignty/Blood 13-47

 Just War/War Crimes/Genocide/Human Rights 48-94

Human Aggression 95-131

Conquest/Authority 132-154

Ethnic Conflict/Nationalism 155-184

Revolution/Internal Conflict 185-233

War/Threat/Aggression 234-246

U.N./Peacekeeping/Humanitarian Intervention 247-259

Nuclear Weapons/Weapons of Mass Destruction 260-268

Kagan: "Power & Weakness" 269-287

Asmus & Pollack: "The New TransAtlantic Project" 287-297

Note: These are the overhead projections from the last time the course was taught.

Caveat: I will develop some new projections during this term and I will modify, or even skip, many old ones. Further, depending on major events or my whimsy, I will frequently deviate from the sequence of materials in this course pack.

============================================
DEFINITION - a statement expressing the essential nature of something; a statement of the meaning of a word; the action or the power of describing, explaining, or making definite and clear.

WAR - A STATE OF OPEN AND DECLARED ARMED HOSTILE CONFLICT BETWEEN STATES OR NATIONS;
   A PERIOD SUCH ARMED CONFLICT;
   A STATE OF HOSTILITY, CONFLICT, OR ANTAGONISM;

A struggle or competition between opposing forces or for a particular end.

Ziegler, p. 2: "We begin with a narrow definition of war. . . . War is a conflict among states carried on by their armed forces. To distinguish war from border skirmishes and other minor incidents we usually say it must reach a certain magnitude-for example, at least 1,000 soldiers killed in battle per year."

INHUMAN:
[WEBSTER'S]

1a- LACKING PITY, KINDNESS, OR MERCY: SAVAGE, "AN INHUMAN TYRANT"
1 b- COLD, IMPERSONAL, "HIS USUAL QUIET, ALMOST INHUMAN COURTESY"
1 c- NOT WORTHY OF OR CONFORMING TO THE NEEDS OF HUMAN BEINGS, "INHUMAN LIVING CONDITIONS"

 2- OF OR SUGGESTING A NONHUMAN CLASS OF BEINGS

 BESTIAL - resembling a beast; marked by base or inhuman instincts or desires.
 BEASTLY
WILD ANIMAL

 SAVAGE:
 a- NOT DOMESTICATED OR UNDER HUMAN CONTROL
 b- LACKING THE RESTRAINTS NORMAL TO CIVILIZED HUMAN BEINGS.

============================================
RAPID CHANGE
Y2K

ANOMIE OR NORMLESSNESS=
SOCIAL INSTABILITY RESULTING FROM A BREAKDOWN OF STANDARDS AND VALUES.
   ALSO PERSONAL UNREST, ALIENATION AND UNCERTAINTY THAT COMES FROM A LACK OF PURPOSE OR IDEALS.

LACK OF RULES TO GOVERN BEHAVIOR

VALUE EXPECTATIONS can't be achieved by normal available means

RESULT IS CONFLICT ABOUT MEANS

There will be a lack of consensus on the norms of behavior

   •- NORMS WILL BE WEAK LEADING TO GREATER 'DEVIANCE'

   •- CONFLICTING NORMS: GET RICH BUT DON'T CHEAT
BUT REALLY: "DO IT BUT DON'T LET ME SEE YOU"
    drinking on campus

   •- UNKNOWN NORMS - email rules

RESULT IS HIGH RELATIVE DEPRIVATION AND MORE DEVIANT BEHAVIOR

Transition to market economy and rapid change in Russia - collapse of health care system
   •lack basic medicines and equipment
   •under-funded, lack training
   •Male life expectancy has declined more than 12 to 59.9 years
    •return of epidemic diseases: TB, polio, diphtheria
    •SELF-DESTRUCTION: violence, smoking, alcoholism, drugs
    •AIDS

============================================
TRADITIONAL PEASANT SOCIETY
 a. pre-scientific
 b. fatalistic
 c. range of change is limited
 d. predominantly agricultural
 e. hierarchical social structure - exploitative elite.
 f. custom
 g. strong regionalism
 h. low productivity with a ceiling
 i. little flexibility in civilization.
  PEASANTS are:
   •POWERLESS
   •DOMINATED BY CITY [STATE] & ELITE

   •BASIC DECISIONS ARE MADE FOR THE PEASANT

===================================================================
Revised 12/2000
MAJOR CONFLICTS OF THE 1990S
Conflicts listed below had at least 1,000 deaths in any one year in the 1990s
Incomplete listing

   • Western Hemisphere
   • Guatemala
   • El Salvador
   • Haiti
   • Colombia
   • Peru

   • Africa
   • Sierra Leone
   • Liberia
   • Republic Congo
   • Dem. Rep. Congo [xZaire]
   • Ghana
   • Nigeria
   • Angola
   • Rwanda
   • Burundi
   • South Africa
   • Mozambique
   • Uganda
   • Somalia
   • Eritrea
   • Ethiopia
   • Chad
   • Sudan
   • Algeria
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

   • Middle East
   • Lebanon
   • Yemen
   • Iraq
   • Persian Gulf War
   • Southeast Turkey [Kurds]
   • [note: not Palestine]

   • Europe
   • Bosnia
   • Croatia
   • Kosovo
   • Georgia
   • Moldova
   • Chechnya
   • Azerbaijan/Armenia
 

   • Asia
   • Tajikistan
   • Afghanistan
 

   • Kashmir
   • Sindh
   • Tamils [Sri Lanka]
   • Cambodia
   • East Timor

===================================
THE GOOD, THE BAD AND THE UGLY
2001

PEACE or improved prospects -
 Ethiopia v. Eritrea
 Yugoslavia {Kosovo
 {Bosnia
 East Timor

HUH! Go figure
 Israeli-Palestinian
 VIOLENT but less than before
 Chechnya
 Afghanistan
 Sri Lanka
 Kashmir

SIMMERING & Worrying
 Colombia
 Haiti
 Iraq
 Fiji
 Indonesia - Aceh, Molucca, Irian Jaya
 Ivory Coast
 Senegal
 Zimbabwe
 WORST PLACE ON EARTH
 Sudan
 West Africa - Sierra Leone, Guinea, Liberia
 Congo - Rwanda, Burundi
 Angola

Most violence is internal, even non-state, on ethnic, religious and/or class lines. Armies and military structures are based on the assumption of war with a similar foe.  Security defined as a defense against a direct threat to the nation. All other minor, confused, complex outbreaks are dismissed as irrelevant distractions.

============================================
PCWE or ???
END OF: POST-WORLD WAR II ERA which became the COLD WAR
NOW IN: POST-1989 ERA POST-COLD WAR ERA
period of transition

END OF COLD WAR -- END OF MARXISM-LENINISM
 Fukuyama The End of History?: consensus has developed in past centuries over the viability and desirability of economic and political liberalism. The death of competing ideologies-fascism, communism-means a lessened likelihood of large-scale conflict.

WEAK & FAILED STATES ROGUE STATES
LIBERIA CONGO IRAN CUBA NORTH KOREA
GEORGIA INDONESIA IRAQ SUDAN
ANGOLA SOMALIA LIBYA AFGHANISTAN

1989 LIBERATION OF EASTERN EUROPE; RE-UNIFICATION OF GERMANY
1990-1991 KUWAIT-IRAQ and GULF WAR
1991 BREAK-UP OF THE SOVIET UNION
1991 ETHNIC CLEANSING: YUGOSLAVIA - BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA, CROATIA, SLOVENIA
AZERBAIJAN-ARMENIA [Nagorno-Karabakh], ABKHAZIA
1992-1993 SOMALIA
1994 - RWANDA Genocide, BURUNDI
1995 - CHECHNYA, SREBRENICA ["UN safe area"]
1996-1997 - ZAIRE CONGO; GREAT LAKES CRISIS
1997 -Asian Financial Crisis - INDONESIA
1998 - AFGHANISTAN, Kosovo, Iraq, Congo, Angola, Sudan
1999 - KOSOVO, EAST TIMOR, ETHIOPIA v. ERITREA
2000 - SIERRA LEONE, CONGO-K, Colombia
2001 - 9/11 US attacked; Afghanistan, al-Qaeda, terrorism

"RUSSIAN AND U.S. SEE A BREAKTHROUGH ON DIVISIVE ISSUES"  NYT 10/19/01
Russia and the United States signaled tonight that they were near a breakthrough on the key strategic issues that had divided the two countries since President Bush came into office, . . .
Along with its support for the American military campaign in Afghanistan, Russia is offering its oil fields as a secure alternative to dependence on the turbulent Persian Gulf.
 "NOT ONLY IS THE COLD WAR OVER," SECRETARY POWELL SAID, "THE POST- COLD-WAR PERIOD IS ALSO OVER."
 WASHINGTON AND MOSCOW NOW REGARD THE SEPT. 11 TERRORIST ATTACKS ON THE UNITED STATES AS A WATERSHED EVENT IN INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, a number of experts say, that has offered opportunities for Mr. Putin and Mr. Bush to battle a common enemy.

============================================
The COLD WAR 1946-1989

COLD NOT HOT
A HOT WAR IS A SHOOTING WAR.

COLD WAR WAS INTENSE COMPETITION AND RIVALRY WITHOUT ACTUAL COMBAT BETWEEN THE MAIN ADVERSARIES.
 [US troops never in combat v. SOVIET troops]
 TRUMAN DOCTRINE, MARSHALL PLAN, NATO
BREZHNEV DOCTRINE, Warsaw Pact

IDEOLOGY: COMMUNISM v. DEMOCRACY

 USSR: UNION OF SOVIET SOCIALIST REPUBLICS 1917-1991
 COMPETITION: Soviet Communism was a totalitarian, ideological, political, moral, economic system that fundamentally challenged world order
 Made a Believable Claim That They Had a Better System;
Legitimacy for Nondemocratic Regimes
 Ideological Solidarity with Communists Worldwide

 IRON CURTAIN
SOVIET BLOC

Cold War Included PROXY WARS in Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan, Angola, Mozambique, Ethiopia, Central America With MILLIONS OF BATTLE DEATHS and CIVILIAN CASUALTIES.

 COLD WAR INCLUDES ARMS RACE COSTING $ TRILLIONS

COLD WAR POLARIZED ALMOST ALL INTERNATIONAL DISPUTES
US BACKED CORRUPT DICTATORSHIPS IF THEY WERE "ANTI-COMMUNIST"
US often OPPOSED GOVTS THAT WERE NATIONALIST, REFORMIST, OR SOCIALIST

============================================
COMPLEX HUMANITARIAN EMERGENCIES
Increasingly Dominating The International Agenda And Resource Flows.

 COMPLEX EMERGENCIES ARE HUMANITARIAN DISASTERS LOCATED AT THE DANGEROUS INTERSECTION OF POLITICS AND POVERTY, FAMINE AND DISEASE.
    protracted internal conflicts of unusual violence and cruelty
    fueled by racial, religious and ethnic differences;
    guerrilla conflicts without a clear front line;
    structural deterioration of the framework of societies including the
    inability of a nation to feed itself
    the collapse of the institutions of conflict resolution;
    failed development policies; and, even
    failed states.

    the failed states, weak govts, guerrilla factions, warlords, and combatant authorities LACK THE CAPACITY TO COPE with the disasters they have caused, but
    deliberately deny humanitarian access to vulnerable populations
    make humanitarian and relief workers direct targets of violence.

    MULTI FUNCTIONAL PEACEKEEPING OPERATIONS TO GET ASSISTANCE TO CIVILIAN VICTIMS OF COMPLEX EMERGENCIES.
    UN forces deployed to facilitate and protect humanitarian operations
    neutral and impartial between the warring parties.

    COLLAPSE OF STATE INSTITUTIONS IS A FEATURE OF COMPLEX EMERGENCIES.
    weak and failed governments
    paralysis of governance,
    breakdown of law and order,
    general banditry and chaos;
    "not only are the functions of government suspended, its assets are destroyed or looted and experienced officials are killed or flee the country" (UN, 1995).
    THE GOVERNMENT IS NOT IN CONTROL OF ITS OWN TERRITORY;
    hostile factions will control humanitarian access.
4/19/00--The Security Council [resolution 1296 (2000)] condemned the targeting of civilians in armed conflict, stating that this practice -- and the denial of humanitarian access -- may constitute a threat to international peace and security.

============================================
HUMANITARIAN INTERVENTION
   Humanitarian = promoting human welfare.

   Humanitarian Action = action promoting human welfare, very board range.
    Humanitarian Relief = emergency relief assistance to stayee, displaced and refugee populations during conflict.

   International Humanitarian Law = principles and rules which limit the use of violence in times of armed conflict. The aims are:
 (1) to protect persons who are not directly engaged in hostilities - wounded, shipwrecked, POWs, and civilians;
 (2) to limit the effects of fighting to the attainment of the objectives of the conflict.

Humanitarian Intervention = (Brownlie) AGAINST A STATE THAT HAD ABUSED ITS SOVEREIGNTY BY BRUTAL AND EXCESSIVELY CRUEL TREATMENT OF THOSE WITHIN ITS POWER
    by engaging in genocide, slavery, or widespread torture.
    The action should be a police measure, and no change of sovereignty could result.
  Other authors and states have suggested as reasons HI:

to free a nation oppressed by another;
   to end crimes and slaughter;
   tyranny;
   extreme cruelty;
   religious persecution; and
   feeble govt or misrule leading to anarchy.

   Deny fundamental human rights
   actions that shock the conscience of mankind
   to prevent genocide against a racially-related minority in a neighboring state after a vain appeal to UN
   Open to abuse;
   only powerful states could act;
   presence of selfish motives.
    Used as a justification for an intervention which is an expression of purely national policy.
"The New Interventionists,"
Stedman, Stephen John Foreign Affairs, 72(1) 1992
  "The new interventionists seek to end civil wars and stop governments from abusing the rights of their peoples." MORAL obligations of the international community

UN SC authorized US-led military force to "use all necessary means" to deliver humanitarian assistance to Somalia.
 Follows on the UN mission to Bosnia, and Res 688 on Kurds.
   •But Somalia did not stand alone as a cause worthy of international intervention." Other candidates for humanitarian intervention - Liberia, Haiti, East Timor, Sudan, Zaire, Bosnia, Somalia, Iraq, Angola.
   •Need to establish Guidelines for Intervention.  significant shift in terms of international relations.
   •Sovereignty would not longer reside w the state but with the people.
   •ROOTS in Wilsonian liberalism tendencies & missionary zeal plus
    •bewilderment when world refuses to conform to American expectations,
    •belief in quick and easy solutions,
    •SUPPORT FOR IOs,
    •favor self-determination for peoples.

   •Humanitarian Intervention in Iraq, Res 688, is not a good precedent: followed a major war rather than preventing war or keeping the peace. Huge prior cost, $70 billion, and loss of life. Hum Int followed Peace Enforcement.
   • Selective Intervention. Civil Wars are no more frequent or deadly now than in the past. Civil Wars are extraordinarily difficult to deal with. The internal actors are single-minded and won't waver--greatly raises cost of intervention.
    •Difficult to intervene and end a civil war. Cuba failed in Angola; Vietnam failed in Cambodia; why should UN be able to do it?
    •The new interventionism will have to be selective. Potential candidates far outstrip available resources.
    •If it is selective, then a moral principle will be applied unevenly, leaving UN open to charges of hypocrisy, cowardice, neglect, or self-interest.
 

Stedman p.2

   •Most civil wars become amenable to settlement only after they have played themselves out with ferocity. "A short-term emphasis on ceasefires may only prolong conflicts and mitigate against parties perceiving that their survival depends on political settlement."
    •Calls for war crimes trials leave one side with no place to go and may work against a negotiated end.
    •Arming a side to produce a 'fair fight' may simply produce a permanent state of war. ??"A decisive victory is sometimes the best result, followed by a forward-looking conciliatory peace."

   •UN Costs and Limits: overextended and underfunded. Tremendous recent expansion with many new or modified tasks: protect noncombatants and food convoys; supervise, monitor and run elections; oversee land reform; document war crimes; provide order for societies. Some of the new commitments are open-ended
    •UN remains wedded to previous doctrines sharply dividing peacekeeping and peace-enforcement on the basis of enemies.
    •In PK there is no enemy and success depends on keeping it that way.
    •In peace-enforcement the UN determines an enemy and seeks to defeat or deter it.
    •Yawning gap between tried doctrines and new tasks.
    •Built-in UN Flaws. Very deliberative body, large bureaucracy, people from all countries: slow, inefficient, and action can be blocked. UN confused by many demands, a need for consensus in decision-making, and a tendency twd incremental action. Often lacks a coherent strategy. The UN can do 'classic PK', but its peace-building ops in Cambodia and Angola are unraveling.
   • Yugoslavia lessons: UN operation has been a disaster.

Civil wars are more difficult to control than international conflicts, and often require a long-term army of occupation.
 



link to Prof. Stein's home page
link to ISS 325 War and Revolution syllabus                                                    stein@msu.edu