link to Prof. Stein's home page
link to ISS 325 War and Revolution syllabus                                                    stein@msu.edu
ISS 325 section 6
WAR AND REVOLUTION
 ISS325--WAR & REVOLUTION lecture NUKES pages
         spring 2003


TABLE OF CONTENTS


Introduction: Relationships and Processes                             2-12
States/Weak States/Sovereignty/Blood                                  13-47
Just War/War Crimes/Genocide                                          48-94
Human Aggression                                                            95-131
Conquest/Authority                                                          132-154
Ethnic Conflict/Nationalism                                               155-184
Revolution/Internal Conflict                                               185-233
War/Threat/Aggression                                                      234-246
U.N./Peacekeeping/Humanitarian Intervention                     247-259
*Nuclear Weapons/Weapons of Mass Destruction                 260-268
Kagan: article and Asmus & Pollack article                          269-295


 INTERNATIONAL COURT OF JUSTICE ISSUES
ADVISORY OPINION ON
LEGALITY OF THREAT OR USE OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS
THE HAGUE, 8 July (ICJ) 8 July 1996 Press Release ICJ/546
advisory opinion on the request made by General Assembly resolution on the legality of the threat or use of nuclear weapons. According to the opinion, the Court: "

 A. Unanimously, There is in neither customary nor conventional international law any specific AUTHORIZATION of the threat or use of nuclear weapons;

 B. By 11 votes to 3, There is in neither customary nor conventional international law any comprehensive and universal PROHIBITION of the threat or use of nuclear weapons as such;

 C. Unanimously, A threat or use of force by means of nuclear weapons that is contrary to Article 2, paragraph 4, of the United Nations Charter and that fails to meet all the requirements of Article 51, is unlawful;

 D. Unanimously, A threat or use of nuclear weapons should also be compatible with the requirements of the international law applicable in armed conflict, particularly INTERNATIONAL HUMANITARIAN LAW,

 E. By 7 votes to 7, that THE THREAT OR USE OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS WOULD GENERALLY BE CONTRARY TO THE RULES OF INTERNATIONAL LAW APPLICABLE IN ARMED CONFLICT, and in particular the principles and rules of humanitarian law;
 However, in view of the current state of international law, and of the elements of fact at its disposal, THE COURT CANNOT CONCLUDE DEFINITIVELY WHETHER THE THREAT OR USE OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS WOULD BE LAWFUL OR UNLAWFUL IN AN EXTREME CIRCUMSTANCE OF SELF-DEFENCE, in which the very survival of a State would be at stake;

 F. Unanimously, There exists an obligation to pursue in good faith negotiations leading to nuclear disarmament

============================================
NUCLEAR WEAPONS

KILOTON = 1,000 TONS
MEGATON = 1,000,000 TONS

BETWEEN 1945 AND 1954 THE POWER OF WEAPONS INCREASED BY:
ONE MILLION TO ONE

WORLD WAR II TOTAL = 3 MEGATONS
 it would take 400 a-bombs to equal damage to Germany; 800-1,200 to equal damage to USSR

ONE U.S. TRIDENT SUB = 57.6 MEGATONS
24 Trident II Missiles;
@ MISSILE = 8 300-475 kiloton nuclear warheads
 

FIRST STRIKE CAPABILITY

SECOND STRIKE CAPABILITY

PRE-EMPTIVE ATTACK

DETERRENCE [MAD = MUTUAL ASSURED DESTRUCTION]

DEFENSE [SDI]

TRIAD

NUCLEAR WINTER or AUTUMN
 

============================================
  TEN MEGATONS ON DETROIT

CENTER 3 MILE RADIUS - TOTAL DESTRUCTION OF ALL BUILDINGS; 75% MORTALITY. Hamtramck, Belle Isle, WSU, Ambassador Br.

MIDDLE CIRCLE 7 MORE MILES [from 3 to 10 miles from ground zero] ALL BUILDINGS HEAVILY DAMAGED. 30% MORTALITY; 40% SEVERE WOUNDS. Grosse Pts., Warren, Hazel Park, Ferndale, Oak Park, Dearborn, Allen and Lincoln Parks, Wyandotte.

OUTER CIRLE 10 MORE MILES [from 10 to 20 miles out] HEAT AND RADIATION. FLASH IGNITES ALL WOOD--FIRESTORMS. KILL ALL OUT IN OPEN. MT. CLEMONS, CLINTON, STERLING HTS. TROY, BLOOMFIELD HILLS, FARMINGTON HILLS, LIVONIA, I-275, METRO AIRPORT, TRENTON.

1250 SQUARE MILES DEVASTATED.

 1 MEGATON on Lansing

Several circles: BLAST 4 1/2 MAJOR; 8 SEVERE.
THERMAL 7 1/2
RADIATION 6
 

2 1/2 RADIUS TOTAL DESTRUCTION = 19.6 SQ MILES State Capital to Spartan Stadium.

1 MORE MILE OUT, 1/2 KILLED, ONLY REINFORCED STRUCTURES REMAIN. Coral Gables 38 SQ MILES

3 MORE MILES OUT, 3 1/2 TO 6 1/2 FIRE, HEAVY DAMAGE, 5% KILLED BY BLAST, 20% KILLED BY HEAT AND RADIATION. 132 SQ MILES.

3 1/2 MORE MILES OUT, 6 1/2 TO 10 MILES, 10% DEAD, 35% INJURED, 314 SQ MILES.
 
 

============================================
THE NUCLEAR TABOO???
50 plus years since the last and only use of Nuclear Weapons

1950 - September - Korean War: US & South Korean troops retreat to a perimeter around Pusan.
 British PM Clement Atlee flies to DC to beseech Pres. Truman not to use Nukes.

1950 - November - Chinese intervention in Korean War.
 Gen. MacArthur ponders use of nukes.

1953 - October - Sec. State Dulles "Somehow or other we must manage to remove the taboo from the use of these weapons."

Nukes are unique: all other weapons are referred to as CONVENTIONAL.
 [WMD - Weapons of Mass Destruction]

1955 - Pres. Eisenhower: "used on strictly military targets and for strictly military purposes . . . just exactly as you would use a bullet or anything else."

1964 - Pres. Johnson: "Make no mistake. There is no such thing as a conventional nuclear weapon. For 19 peril-filled years no nation has loosed the atom against another. To do so now is a political decision of the highest order."
   •not just another weapon to be judged by its military effectiveness
   •1960s - Soviet doctrine and weaponry was focused on non-nuclear war
 1970s - Pres. Carter debated use of "Neutron Bomb" which kills many but does little property damage or lasting radiation.
   •firebreak needed between nukes and conventional, not blur distinction
   •so-called "benign nukes" would be tempting to use
   •neutron bombs would lead to nuke weapons escalation.

In 1970s & 1980s both SUPERPOWERS accept humiliating defeats by non-nuclear states
 ALTERNATIVE HISTORY:
   •US bombs Chinese onslaught 1950;
   •uses limited nukes in Vietnam.
   •Soviets use nukes in Afghanistan.
   •Israel uses them against Egyptian Suez Canal beachhead 1973.
   •????India v. Pakistan; North Korea v.
Taboo p. 2
PNE - Peaceful Nuclear Explosions - dig canals or harbors, create power.
    •huge opposition - UNTHINKABLE

NON-PROLIFERATION EFFORTS have limited spread.
Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty [rejected by Senate 1999] codifies universal revulsion against nukes.

HIROSHIMA has been sanctified and Japanese aggressors turned into victims.
 "The elevation of the Hiroshima event to the status of a profoundly mystical event, an event ultimately of the same religious force as biblical events. . . . Anniversary . . . bears resemblance to the observation of major religious holidays."

????Does this nuclear revulsion, sanctity and taboo work for Iraq, North Korea, Iran, Pakistan, India????

    •some taboos are more enduring than others
    •most taboos reflect local values and serve practical ends
    •forbidden foods may reduce possibility of food poisoning
    •many taboos erode over time to become quaint cultural vestiges
    •some taboos are universal and enduring, against: incest; public elimination; molesting a corpse.
    •"the strength of taboos depends not on considered reflection, but on revulsion. . . . A universal taboo forbids the performance of a particular action and also restricts full consideration of the prohibition generally."

    •Gehring: "The 'nuclear taboo' exists today because possessors of atomic weapons-and their general populations-condemn those who would consider their use on any but the most extreme occasion."
 

============================================
Ziegler
DISARMAMENT means the reduction or elimination of weapons.

ARMS CONTROL means a form of military cooperation by potential enemies

STRATEGIC WARHEADS c.1990 plus thousands of tactical nuclear weapons
US  9862
RUSSIA 7762
UKRAINE 1656
KAZAKHSTAN 1410
FRANCE 525
CHINA 415
ENGLAND 200
BELARUS 81

ISRAEL 50-200
INDIA ???dozen
Pakistan 1/2 doz??
N. Korea c.5

S. Africa 6

**c.1994 Khazakhstan asked US to remove nuke weapon grade material it could not protect. When done, US found there was 10% more material than indicated. Accounting and location of stockpiles is lousy

**12/96 Belarus, last of former-Soviet nuke holders, turns its missiles over to Russia.

**South Africa dismantled its nuclear weapons and production facilities in the early 1990s. It is the ONLY COUNTRY TO VOLUNTARILY DISARM.
 
 

============================================
Arms Control
 Not a single weapon limited or destroyed. Parties can continue to attack each other.
 nyt 4/27/96 - text of the understanding between Israel and Lebanon:
 The United States understands that after discussions with the Governments of Israel and Lebanon, and in Consultation with Syria, Lebanon and Israel will insure the following:
 1) Armed groups in Lebanon will not carry out attacks by Katyusha rockets or by any kind of weapon into Israel.
 2) Israel and those cooperating with it will not fire any kind of weapon at civilians or civilian targets in Lebanon.
 3) Beyond this, the two parties commit to insuring that under no circumstances will civilians be the target of attack and that civilian populated areas and industrial and electrical installations will not be used as launching grounds for attacks.
 4) Without violating this understanding, nothing herein shall preclude any party from exercising the right of self-defense.
 A monitoring Group is established consisting of the United States, France, Syria, Lebanon and Israel. Its task . . . .
 

 ISRAEL SHIFTS LEBANON POLICY AS THOUSANDS FLEE BORDER
 By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS February 8, 2000
 KIRYAT SHEMONA, Israel -- Just hours after the heaviest Israeli bombardment of Lebanon in eight months, Prime Minister Ehud Barak said today he is not closing the door to peace but will do what is necessary to protect Israeli citizens.

 Barak accused Hezbollah of systematically violating a code of reprisals that has governed hostilities for the past four years. The code stipulates that neither side target civilians.
 The prime minister said Hezbollah has fired on Israeli troops from Lebanese villages, apparently gambling that Israel would not respond in kind to avoid hurting civilians. Israel's bombing of Lebanese power stations, a response to the killing of Israeli soldiers by Hezbollah, also went beyond the code.
 "Our operation yesterday intended to signal to the Lebanese government and Hezbollah and even the Syrians that Israel is not willing to accept unilateral violations and we will do whatever it takes to defend our citizens," Barak said.
 "It is not our intention to hurt civilians or to close the door on the opportunity to continue the peace process," he added.

============================================
STRATEGIC BOMBING

TACTICAL--air attack in close support of friendly ground forces, battlefield.

STRATEGIC--strike at the sources of military, economic, or political power. Homeland, cities, factories, communications, government, leadership, infrastructure, MORALE.
 HISTORY
31 May 1915 German Zeppelin LZ38 attacks East End of London, 2 children killed.
 World War I -- 84 German raids in 3+ years kill 1,400 civilians and don't affect British war production.

 Interwar -- Gen. Douhet, Italy, 1921, develops the DOCTRINE of the KNOCKOUT BLOW by heavy bomber fleets smashing enemy cities.
   •ASSUMPTION that you can break a nation's will to fight. Attacks on population will discredit enemy govt, people will revolt, end war.
   •EVIDENCE of history is that the people do not break and that military leaders, safe in bunkers, can take enormous civilian losses without flinching. Bombing civilians reinforces their will to resist.

 1935 Italian conquest of Ethiopia
 1936 Spanish Civil War, Valencia, Guernica
 1937 merciless Japanese bombing of Chinese cities, esp. Shanghai.
 1939 Germans destroy Warsaw
 1940 German BLITZ of London, Battle of Britain
 1942 Doolittle raid on Tokyo
 1942 Royal Air Force night raids on Germany
 1943 USAF daylight "pinpoint' bombing. Saturation bombing, carpet bombing.
 
 

============================================
FIRESTORMS

 1943 25 July, Hamburg attacked by 728 RAF bombers with bombs and incendiaries. Next day, two daylight raids by USAF, then 787 RAF in night raid.
FIRESTORM: "a storm, a hurricane, a sea of fire" over 4 square miles, 150 mph winds.
 1945 13 February, Dresden, 796 RAF, 311 USAF. 2nd major FIRESTORM kills betw 30,000 and 100,000.

 1945 March, 325 B-29s destroy Tokyo by FIRESTORM, 100,000+ killed [worst bombing attack of war including A-bomb].
 59 of Japan's 66 largest cities destroyed, 1/2 million killed, 20 million homeless [40% of urban housing destroyed]. Only Kyoto and Hiroshima had not been firebombed.

 Firestorms destroying an entire city, terror raids, cross a moral/ethical line that makes Hiroshima and Nagasaki possible. Destroying cities had become routine.
 
 Strategic bombing, IRAQ 1991, is defensible in a just war. Aims at factories producing war materials, rail lines, roads, communications, government buildings and ministries, plus of course military bases behind the front. Civilians inevitably suffer. Attacks on Iraq's services; power and sewers, meant as a graphic demonstration of Saddam's inability to protect his population.



link to Prof. Stein's home page
link to ISS 325 War and Revolution syllabus                                                       stein@msu.edu