Probabilistic Price Forecasts for Corn

 How to Use the Probabilistic Price Forecasts Corn Futures and Options Contract Specifications Home

• July 2013 Corn Futures (as of 4/30/2013)

 There is a 10% chance that the price will be higher than \$7.43 and a 10% chance that the price will be less than or equal to \$5.63. This indicates that there is an 80% probability that the price will fall between these two prices.  There is a 50% chance the price will be less than or equal to (or greater than) \$6.46.

 Price Probability that the realized price at maturity will be less than this price 5.63 10% 5.90 20% 6.11 30% 6.29 40% 6.46 50% 6.65 60% 6.84 70% 7.08 80% 7.43 90%

 Current Futures Price 6.5 Standard Error of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity 0.7028 Median of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity 6.46

• December 2013 Corn Futures (as of 4/30/2013)

 There is a 10% chance that the price will be higher than \$7.22 and a 10% chance that the price will be less than or equal to \$4.10. This indicates that there is an 80% probability that the price will fall between these two prices.  There is a 50% chance the price will be less than or equal to (or greater than) \$5.43.

 Price Probability that the realized price at maturity will be less than this price 4.10 10% 4.52 20% 4.85 30% 5.14 40% 5.43 50% 5.75 60% 6.11 70% 6.55 80% 7.22 90%

 Current Futures Price 5.5675 Standard Error of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity 1.2394 Median of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity 5.43

• March 2014 Corn Futures (as of 4/30/2013)

 There is a 10% chance that the price will be higher than \$7.56 and a 10% chance that the price will be less than or equal to \$4.01. This indicates that there is an 80% probability that the price will fall between these two prices.  There is a 50% chance the price will be less than or equal to (or greater than) \$5.50.

 Price Probability that the realized price at maturity will be less than this price 4.01 10% 4.47 20% 4.84 30% 5.17 40% 5.50 50% 5.86 60% 6.27 70% 6.78 80% 7.56 90%

 Current Futures Price 5.67 Standard Error of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity 1.4206 Median of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity 5.5