Probabilistic Price Forecasts for Lean Hogs

 How to Use the Probabilistic Price Forecasts Lean Hogs Futures and Options Contract Specifications Home August 2013 Lean Hog Futures October 2013 Lean Hog Futures December 2013 Lean Hog Futures

• August 2013 Lean Hog Futures (as of 4/30/2013)
 There is a 10% chance that the price will be higher than \$102.82 and a 10% chance that the price will be less than or equal to \$82.02.  This indicates that there is an 80% probability that the price will fall between these two prices.  There is a 50% chance the price will be less than or equal to (or greater than) \$91.79.

 Price Probability that the realized price at maturity will be less than this price 82.02 10% 85.26 20% 87.69 30% 89.80 40% 91.79 50% 93.92 60% 96.17 70% 98.92 80% 102.82 90%

 Current Futures Price 92.15 Standard Error of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity 8.1208 Median of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity 91.79

• October 2013 Lean Hog Futures (as of 4/30/2013)
 There is a 10% chance that the price will be higher than \$94.34 and a 10% chance that the price will be less than or equal to \$71.10. This indicates that there is an 80% probability that the price will fall between these two prices.  There is a 50% chance the price will be less than or equal to (or greater than) \$81.85.

 Price Probability that the realized     price at maturity will be less than this price 71.10 10% 74.63 20% 77.30 30% 79.63 40% 81.85 50% 84.23 60% 86.77 70% 89.88 80% 94.34 90%

 Current Futures Price 82.35 Standard Error of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity 9.0888 Median of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity 81.85

• December 2013 Lean Hog Futures (as of 4/30/2013)
 There is a 10% chance that the price will be higher than \$91.92 and a 10% chance that the price will be less than or equal to \$66.77. This indicates that there is an 80% probability that the price will fall between these two prices.  There is a 50% chance the price will be less than or equal to (or greater than) \$78.29.

 Price Probability that the realized     price at maturity will be less than this price 66.77 10% 70.53 20% 73.39 30% 75.90 40% 78.29 50% 80.87 60% 83.63 70% 87.02 80% 91.92 90%

 Current Futures Price 78.9 Standard Error of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity 9.8506 Median of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity 78.29