Figure 2. Timeline of significant bread firm acquisitions (click for pdf version)
With regard to geography, bread is quite perishable, so firms cannot rely on just one large bakery to distribute to an entire continent. The number of locations has declined, however, as ownership consolidated. Bimbo closed 18 plants in the years following its acquisition of Sara Lee, and added just 2 (Sosland 2014). Bimbo currently has 70 bakeries in the U.S., and Flowers has 49 (Flowers Foods 2016). In other words, more than half the bread sold in fifty states is produced in little more than one hundred locations. For comparison, in 1920 just 27% of sales came from 800 plants (Alsberg 1926).
One hundred and fifty years ago most flour mills were relatively small, and frequently located near a stream that could power a waterwheel. In 1870 there were 22,573 mills in the U.S (Posner and Hoseney 2015). The industry became much more concentrated after the Civil War though, both geographically and in ownership. This change was influenced by new technologies, which included new sources of power and transportation, along with an industrial milling process developed in Hungary, which made flour less perishable.
Within a few decades, the precursors of General Mills, Pillsbury and another Minneapolis firm (Northwestern Consolidated) dominated the industry with just two-dozen mills. By 1898 they were described as a “flour trust,” but their power declined soon afterword as wheat production increased in other parts of the continent, including Ontario and Quebec (Millikan 2003).
As with baking, however, the current situation is moving towards greater uniformity of ownership. During the 1980s, the market share of the top four firms increased from 40 to 61% (Heffernan and Hendrickson 2002), and remains very high. According to the North American Miller’s Association, 95% of the industry’s capacity is controlled by its 48 member firms, which together have 170 mills (NAMA 2011). The top two firms, however, control more than one-third of these facilities.
The largest is Ardent Mills, which is a joint venture formed in 2014 to combine the operations of privately held Cargill, publicly traded ConAgra Brands, and the farmer cooperative CHS. Cargill and ConAgra each have a 44% stake, with the remaining 12% owned by CHS (formerly Cenex Harvest States, as a result of a merger between two large farmer cooperatives). As Figure 3 indicates, Ardent Mills currently has 40 mills in the U.S. and Canada, including one in the Toronto metropolitan area that was acquired from Mondelez. Although the U.S. Department of Justice required the sale of another four facilities to approve the merger, Ardent Mills now owns the majority of mills in some regions of the continent—this gives farmers fewer options to sell their crops, and bakeries fewer options to buy flour. The firm is estimated to control more than 34% of the flour market in the U.S. (Runyon 2013).
Figure 3. Locations of Ardent Mills facilities
Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) is the second largest miller in the U.S., with 17% of sales. It would have been ranked first if the Ardent Mills merger had not been approved. ADM is infamous for its internal slogan, “the competitor is our friend and the customer is our enemy,” as well the conviction of its executives for fixing prices in lysine and citric acid markets (Lieber 2000, p. 10). The firm has 23 wheat mills in the U.S. and 6 in Canada, although it shut down additional mills in Missouri in 2010, and Alberta in 2013.
Some of the problems with such geographic concentration became evident this year. On May 31, General Mills announced a voluntary recall of flour milled at its Kansas City, MO plant, due to concern it was linked to outbreak of E. coli O121 and O26 in 21 states. At least 46 people are suspected of contracting the illness from consuming the flour in raw form (CDC 2016).
Farming is a bit more complicated. Wheat cannot yet be produced in a factory, therefore it must be planted in the ground. This makes it much more extensive geographically than the downstream segments of milling and baking. Globally, the leading producers are the European Union, China and India, followed by U.S. Russia and Canada (Statista 2016). The U.S. was once the world’s leading exporter, but has recently fallen behind the E.U. and Russia. In Canada, wheat production in centered in the southern Prairie Provinces, along with southern Ontario and Quebec. This crop is grown in most states in the U.S., but is concentrated in the Great Plains and eastern Washington and Oregon.
Wheat accounted for 55 million acres harvested in the U.S. in 2012, and was exceeded in extent only by corn and soybeans. The USDA census of agriculture data reported that there were more than 147,000 farms that contributed to this production, although the number of farms is declining as their average size increases. For example, from 1987 to 2007 the median acres of wheat harvested more than doubled, rising from 404 to 910 (MacDonald, Korb, and Hoppe 2013). Figure 4 shows that the middle categories (43,000 farms of 250 to 1,999 acres in size) accounted for two-thirds of the harvest in 2012. A much lower percentage of the harvest, 11%, came from smaller farms (nearly 101,000 farms with less than 250 acres).
Figure 4. Acres of wheat harvested by farm size in the United States
Wheat can be used for many food products, and this is reflected in the extent of the six major classes that are grown in North America. In the U.S., approximately 40% is hard red winter, meaning it is planted in the fall and resumes growing in the following year, and 20% is hard red spring, which is planted in the spring and harvested the same year—both are most commonly used for bread. The rest is planted in soft red winter, soft white, hard white and durum varieties—these are more typically processed into cookies, crackers, cakes, pastries, pasta, etc. (Bond and Liefert 2016). Hard red spring is the most common class of wheat in Canada. Handling systems for collecting wheat have typically focused on these classes, rather than specific varieties (Magnan 2011).
The number of varieties planted in North America has narrowed substantially in the last century. There are at least 25 species (Rogosa 2016), and over 30,000 varieties of wheat, which is not surprising when you consider it is a crop that has been cultivated for approximately 10,000 years. In Michigan, however, just six varieties are planted on half the acreage (Nagelkirk and Black 2012), and most other states report similar patterns of uniformity. When evaluating the diversity of genes within these varieties, the science is quite complicated, but most researchers suggest that in North America it narrowed from 1930 to 1980. This trend was reversed beginning in the 1980s, due to public and plant breeder concerns for future food security, such as the threat of wheat stem rust (Reif et al. 2005; Fu and Somers 2009). More recent research in France, which integrated both genetic and spatial data, however, suggests that wheat genetic diversity in that country began to decline again in the 1990s (Bonnin et al. 2014).
Seed saving is more common for wheat than other major commodities, such as corn and soybeans (Mascarenhas and Busch 2006), therefore there is greater potential knowledge and infrastructure to increase diversity. Major seed/chemical corporations—including Bayer, Syngenta and DuPont—have been investing in the development of hybrid varieties of wheat for decades, however. The effort is biologically challenging, but if they achieve their claims that they will be commercially successful within the next few years, rates of seed saving are likely to decline further (Kloppenburg 2004).
Although the dominant trends are toward uniformity, there are also numerous forms of resistance. The motivations behind these efforts are varied, but they may have the effect of maintaining diversity, whether or not it is an explicit goal. “Bake like it’s 1869,” for example, is a slogan of GRAINSTORM Heritage Baking in Toronto (2016). Their vision, shared by a new wave of local bakeries, is to grow an alternative to the industrial white flour bread system.
There are also strong movements to reduce wheat consumption, or even give it up entirely, such as those who have adopted gluten-free diets, due to sensitivity to this protein. However, some people report that they are able to tolerate less common varieties of wheat, which has in turn contributed to rapidly rising production of so-called ‘ancient’ or ‘heritage’ wheat varieties. These include einkorn, emmer, Turkey Red, Red Fife and spelt—varieties that were more frequently planted in the early 1900s. The demand for ancient and heritage wheat varieties is also driven by interest in nutrition and better tasting bread (Fromartz 2015). For example, Kamut is a name brand for the flavorful, nutty tasting khorasan variety of wheat, which is grown on more than 1,200 farms in Canada and the U.S.—much of the harvest is currently exported to customers in Italy (Hassanein 2011). The price premiums for ancient and heritage varieties may result in higher returns per acre for farmers, despite lower yields than more modern varieties (Montana Flour & Grains 2016).
The systems that involve less common wheat varieties typically reduce the number of links in the supply chain, often by design. It is remarkable that interest in regional food systems is now extending to wheat, even though it has the disadvantage of being a commodity with a low ratio of value to volume (Hills, Goldberger, and Jones 2013). Regional supply chains are more resilient to disruptions, such as those caused by natural disasters (Paci-Green and Berardi 2015), although these positive externalities are not currently reflected in prices. Even for longer supply chains (such as Kamut), less concentrated ownership is likely to lead to more diverse organizational forms, greater decision-making autonomy, and a greater capacity to adjust to change (Hendrickson 2015; Rotz and Fraser 2015).
Another aspect that is critical for resilience is knowledge, which industrial systems have made less accessible (Anderson 2015), particularly when it contributes to greater self-reliance. In reaction, movements to regain once common skills, such as baking bread, are on the upswing. Some home bakers are even going further and milling their own flour at home. Their motivations include better flavor, texture and nutritional differences—stone ground flour has more vitamin A and B1 (thiamin) than flour from a roller mill. For those who are not grinding wheat themselves, more options are being provided by an increasing number of small-scale stone mill operations—these include renovated 1800s era mills, such as Westwind Milling in Linden, Michigan. One of the most successful stone-grinding operations in North America is Bob’s Red Mill, and you can now find this company’s spelt flour in nearly any supermarket.
Another example of how mainstream these trends have become is illustrated by Wegmans, a chain of 91 supermarkets headquartered in Rochester, New York (which was called “flour city” in the early 1800s). One nearby Wegmans location recently started selling bread made from regionally sourced einkorn and rye, freshly milled and baked in the store. The baker, Nick Greco, was formerly an instructor at the Culinary Institute of America. He brought his own small electric mill into the store, and provided the CEO a taste of bread made from freshly ground flour. A few weeks later Greco was on a plane to Austria, to explore buying the stone mill that was eventually brought to the store (Schuhmacher 2016).
If that is not mainstream enough for you, both General Mills and the Kellogg Company have introduced breakfast cereals that prominently feature “ancient grains” on the label, and contain the ingredients Kamut and spelt (along with quinoa). You might wonder if the motivation was to increase the diversity of the food supply, or perhaps the purported health benefits. Instead, after criticism of the much higher amounts of sugar in “Cheerios + Ancient Grains” when compared to regular Cheerios, marketing manager Alan Cunningham explained that General Mills, “simply wanted to capitalize on the ancient-grains trend while also making the cereal taste good” (Vara 2014, n.p.). So you can see that although smaller firms are increasing the diversity of options in ways that resonate with greater numbers of people, larger firms are quick to co-opt the most successful efforts. This may not be entirely bad, however, if it results in increased plantings of less common wheat varieties (Longin and Würschum 2016), and greater accessibility for those of us who live in areas that are not on the leading edge of food trends.
Summary and conclusion
I explored uniformity and diversity in three parts of the North American wheat/bread chain: baking, milling and farming. These segments appear to be increasingly uniform with respect to ownership, geography, varieties and genes. There are also important resistance efforts, however, and although these are currently small, they are making some progress in maintaining or even increasing diversity in some areas.
Many questions remain to be answered on this topic, but I conclude with three: (1) What would it look like if we all put on our food detective caps, and decoded diversity and uniformity, not just in bread and wheat, but in a number of other food systems? (2) How might we communicate this information to the public, so that people are better informed about the values they are currently supporting? (3) What contribution might this make to increasing diversity in food systems as a result?
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